A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
