Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.